Chinese Data Are Truth or Hide It While China’s economy continues strong career, senior officials of Chinese companies Dow Focus Group and Western economists came out to confirm the existence of evidence that officials in local and regional governments and falsify economic statistics in order to conceal the truth about the depth of the existing problems.
Record amounts of coal surplus has been accumulated about the need in the largest coal storage areas in the country, where, have become power plants burn less coal despite the decline in demand for electricity. However, officials at the local and regional governments and the stations were forced Dow Jones Focus Group managers to non-reporting the extent of Beijing real slowdown, according to officials in the electricity sector.
Production and consumption of electricity has been considered as an alert sign for many aspects of economic activity, as seen as a lot of foreign Dow Jones Focus Group investors, and even some Chinese officials as well, they are accurate tool to monitor what is actually happening in the country’s economy, because the data collection and reporting processes in China is not the same degree of reliability that are in many countries .. But officials to companies and economists and adds that officials in some cities and regions are exaggerating in terms of economic output, income and corporate profits and the proceeds of the tax, and they do this by urging companies to retain a set separate from the books show an improvement in business results and the payment of taxes owed to the contrary actually.
According to rough estimates of the officials and Dow Jones Focus Group experts, these statistical data inaccurate result in a real increase is in many economic indicators by 1 or 2 per cent, which may be enough to make any very bad economic news seems to just not good news. Those officials and experts have been asked to remain anonymous for fear of the affected their relationship with the Chinese authorities, which they depend on access to data and business deals.
Denied «National Bureau of Statistics», a Chinese government body that collects most of the economic statistics at the country level, the economic data to be exaggerated, and spokeswoman for the office: «This is not based on any evidence».
Some still express confidence in official statistics, he cited Mark Mobius, Group Chief Executive Officer «Dow Jones Focus Group for emerging markets», declared in figures related to electricity in the exhibition express skepticism that the Chinese economy is exposed to real difficulties, he said: «I do not think that the activity Economic so bad .. just to see the production of electricity. »
But economists linked to the office reported that officials began to carry out investigations after the discovery of signs of possible existence of exaggeration in the numbers related to electricity.
There are question marks list for a long time about the quality and accuracy of Chinese economic data, but concerns currently raised unusual, considering that this year is witnessing, for the first time since 1989, the simultaneous occurrence of a significant economic slowdown with the overall change in the top leadership of the country, that is all 10 years.
Officials are exposed to all levels of government to pressure of having to inform the Beijing good economic results of, in a period in which are expected to flow from the Beijing waterfall of promotion, transfer and take down grades decisions, therefore, they began to falsify economic activity metrics that are more accurately and looks more uncertain, according said these officials and experts.
He says an executive in the electricity sector: «Government officials do not want to see the negatives, and thus, they ordered the managers of power plants, not to mention cases of the decline in consumption rates in their reports».
Another senior official says in a Chinese company familiar with the special electricity grids data Dow Jones Focus Group are situated in the center of east China’s promise of two heavy manufacturing, namely, Shandong and Jiangsu, said that electricity consumption in both regions declined during the month of May (May) the past by more than 10 per percent from the previous year, as electricity consumption also fell in parts of western China. However, the economic expert caller Statistical Office indicates that cities and regions across the country had been informed about the existence of stability or slight rise in electricity consumption.
He says Kendall, a senior analyst for coal in Asia specialized in the field of energy «Wood Mackenzie global consulting firm with», the coal stack in Ken Huang Dao port totaled 9.5 million tons this month, as a result because the coal loaded on trains up more quickly than you need power plants in southern China, and this amount exceeds the previous record level of 9.3 million tons recorded in November (November) in 2008, just before the global financial crisis reach the zenith.
A Chinese officials pointed out that the following three areas in the list of the largest coal storage areas in China; namely: Tian Jin, and Kao in Diane, and Lian Yun Gang, also reached record levels.
Many Chinese economic indicators have shown the existence of a slowdown already this spring, where investment record in fixed assets slowest growth rate in a month since May 2001, as the annual rate of growth in industrial production fell to below 10 per cent, while electricity generation did not rise by only 3.2 per cent during the month of May compared to the previous year, and 1.5 per cent during the month of April last.
The question now is: Are the actual slowdown much worse? This distortion that has occurred in the government data explains why the prices of commodities such as oil, coal and copper fell sharply this spring, despite the fact that the Chinese official statistics show decline in the degree of the slowdown in economic activity, and that this manipulation of official statistics puzzle statements issued by wholesalers who deal in consumer goods and construction materials, which they said where sales reached the level handle the same as it was in early 2009. In addition, the retention statistical data accurate for internal use by policy-makers, while being advertised for less bad for the fans and markets numbers Finance, may explain why the Chinese central bank suddenly and unexpectedly cut the exchange rate earlier this month.
Many of the studies issued by the «Goldman Sachs» Foundation and other institutions throughout the year has been confirmed, that the expert statisticians Chinese behave in the quarterly growth rates, as appropriate, where they declare less growth rates in periods of prosperity, and higher rates of growth in periods of economic recession.
Chinese officials in the past have had raise question marks about the reliability enjoyed by the Chinese economic statistics; it shows a US diplomatic cable published on the site «Wikileaks» that Li Keqiang, who is widely expected to become the Prime Minister of China next fall, said in 2007 that he The general measures of economic growth upon which China «human-made, and therefore do not have the reliability». Li Keqiang told the US diplomat that he instead focuses on three indicators described as less likely to be manipulated: the consumption of electricity, the size of the rail load, and the rate of repayment of bank loans.
* «New York Times» Service says Jonathan Sinton, a specialist in Chinese energy expert with the «International Energy Agency», he had not heard of the existence of false statements in the Chinese electricity sector, and questioned the possibility of this happening in the largest 5 companies to generate electricity, which produces a combined half China’s electricity. He added: «If there is a problem, it will be present in smaller companies», warning that even these companies will have to in the end to provide accurate information to reconcile fuel, electricity and financial accounts.
Sees Stephen Green, an economist at the China Affairs «Standard Chartered» Bank, the Chinese economy is still a candidate to recover in the autumn, as a result of directed banks to increase lending activity, which leads to stimulate spending movement.
However, an opinion poll among purchasing managers of Chinese manufacturing, issued on Thursday by «HSBC» and a «Market» Bank was independent of the government, made a re-reading of their companies since the month of March 2009 and there was no decline occurs only in November (November) the past, when faced a lot of SMEs crisis short, but sharp, liquidity.